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The global economic outlook for the remainder of 2025 paints quite a mixed picture. Growth is now expected to slow considerably, with the OECD downgrading its forecast from 3.3% last year to 2.9%, and it could drop further if barriers to trade or prolonged policy and geopolitical uncertainty continue to affect markets.
As global economic conditions become increasingly volatile, Grant Thornton’s latest “Trade in Transition” report highlights how mid-market businesses are uniquely positioned to thrive while larger enterprises adopt a cautious “wait and see” stance. With the OECD revising its global growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.9%, and further declines possible due to trade barriers and geopolitical uncertainty, the mid-market faces challenges—but also significant opportunities.
Despite a drop in export and international revenue expectations (down 3.0% and 4.2% respectively), mid-market fundamentals remain strong. Nearly two-thirds of businesses expect increased turnover (66.1%) and profitability (63.1%), with over half anticipating higher selling prices. These indicators reflect the sector’s resilience, adaptability, and strategic strength.
Evolving Trade Landscapes and Strategic Openings
Trade tensions—particularly between the US, EU, and China—have intensified due to rising tariffs and retaliatory measures. These shifts are reshaping global supply chains and prompting a wave of new trade agreements, including:
Regional differences in interest rates, especially the widening gap between the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, add to the uncertainty. Yet, this environment also creates strategic openings. For example, mid-market businesses in Europe and South America expect export growth, while North American firms anticipate expanding into more countries.
Mid-Market Agility vs. Large Enterprise Caution
Large corporations are delaying expansion plans, focusing inward due to trade conflicts, political volatility, and slow recoveries. This hesitation opens the door for mid-market firms to act decisively, gaining first-mover advantages in underserved markets and driving global economic recovery.
A Five-Point Plan for Mid-Market Growth
Grant Thornton proposes a strategic framework to help mid-market businesses capitalize on emerging opportunities:
Model Stability Through Volatility
Use scenario modeling to assess trade route impacts on cost, access, and compliance.
Maintain Resilience Through Flexibility
Adapt operating models with modular logistics, diverse customer bases, and agile supplier networks.
Unlock Digital and Service-Led Growth
Focus on trade corridors that reduce non-tariff barriers for services and digital products.
Strengthen Supply Chains
Leverage trade agreements to improve cross-border logistics and consider dual sourcing strategies.
Expand Talent and Innovation Pathways
Explore R&D incentives and talent exchange mechanisms within modern trade frameworks.
Mid-market businesses, with their agility and strategic mindset, are well-equipped to lead international expansion amid uncertainty. By embracing scenario planning, diversifying supply chains, and engaging with new trade agreements, they can drive sustainable growth and shape the future of global commerce.